Wicked Problems:
Implications for National Forest Planning and Management
Roadmap
• National Forest Plans vis a vis NFMA
• Plans and Planning rule costs
• Nature of Natural Resource Problems
• Lessons from NWFP, ICBEMP, SNEP/SNFP
• Navigation Tools for Wicked Problems
• Open science and planning
• Coping strategies
• Decision analysis
• Active adaptive management
Natural Resource Problems
• Problem complexity, multiple objectives
• Social complexity -- fragmented stakeholders
• Scientific complexity
• Uncertainty
• Conflicting risks
• Dynamic systems
Sierra Problem Areas
• Old forest species and ecosystems
• Aquatic species and ecosystems
• Fuels and fire
• Invasive species
• Lower west side hardwood ecosystems
Spectrum of complexity involved in natural resources
problems
Characteristic: Simple
Complex Wicked
Problem/Solution: Clear, all agree
Fuzzy, disagreement
Objectives: Single
Multiple
Stakeholders: Aligned
Fragmented
Factors influencing
objectives: Few, controllable
Many, beyond
control
Uncertainty: Low
High
Relative risks: Low variability
High variability
Role for science: Leads to clear choice
Informs choices
Coping strategies: Not contentious
Contentious
Decision analysis: Less valuable
More valuable
Wicked Problem Diagnosis
• Can’t define problem(s) precisely
• Science wars, value wars
• Organizational pain
• Failure to reach sustainable solutions
• Traditional tools, approaches not working
Results from NWFP, ICBEMP, SNFP
• NWFP driven by science/politics, can’t be implemented,
costly, failing on goals
• ICBEMP driven by science/values, couldn’t reach decisions
• SNFP driven by science, collaboration, values initially,
politics eventually, fails to address all goals
equitably, being revised
Lessons
• Methods used were insufficient for complexity of problems
• More science alone did not help
• Decision analysis leading to active, adaptive management
needed
Navigation Tools
• Science
• Coping strategies
• Decision analysis
• Active adaptive management
Science Helps
• Understand, define problem(s)
• Develop objectives
• Create alternatives
• Elucidate consequences
• Characterize risk, uncertainty
• Design, conduct monitoring, research, evaluation
Coping Strategies
• Authority
• Competition
• Collaboration
Decision Analysis
• Pr oblem(s)
• O bjectives
• A lternatives
• C onsequences
• T radeoffs
• Uncertainties
• Risks
• Linkages
Challenges
• Interaction of problem definition with solutions
• No stopping rule
• No right or wrong
• Every solution unique
Barriers to Success
• Problem statement
• Objectives
• Alternatives
• Consequences confuse objective w/ subjective
• Unclear consideration of science, risk, uncertainty, values
• Political/judicial power plays
Precautionary Principle
Strong PP: Lack of full certainty on harm?
Do not act
Weak PP: Lack of certainty on harm not sufficient
to allow action to occur
Problem Solving Goals
• Improve quality of decisions
• Increase stakeholder support
• Increase organizational effectiveness
Charting a Course for Effective Problem Solving
• Problem(s) defined as clearly as possible; reviewed, refined
often
• Objectives aligned to problem(s)
• Innovative, feasible, disposable alternatives
• Distinction between science, values
• Structured analysis of science, risk, uncertainty, values
• Openness, candor, integrity
• Commitment to active adaptive management
Strengths of Sierra Plan Amendment
• Overall use of science in policy
• Fuels strategies in the wildland urban interface
• Administrative study on owl habitat
• Tiered approach to ecosystem analysis
Closing Thoughts
• Understand implications of wicked problems
• Use tools, methods appropriate to problem(s)
• Know when to stop analysis (planning) and start learning
(active adaptive management)
• Learn to share power
• Seek healthier organizations as key part of solving wicked
problems
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