Unit 4 - Historical Continuity Model

Introduction

Unit 4 of AIHM 577 Fashion Theory will address the historical continuity model used in analyzing fashion trends and historical changes in fashion. Before continuing with this section of the course, you should complete the readings and questions for Units 1, 2, and 3.

Can fashion be considered evolution without destination? According to theorists who support the historical continuity model of fashion change, changes in fashion follow definite laws of modification and development within an almost unchanging pattern of evolution. That is, changes in fashion follow well-defined rules and therefore are predictable. In fact, Robinson (1975) contends that not only do fashions follow resolute cycles, but fashion cycles display a regularity that puts them effectively outside the influence of external events. The historical continuity of fashion has been explored by economists who are interested in cycles and trends in products. It has also been explored by anthropologists interested in understanding changes in styles of civilizations or cultures. Historical evidence provides support for this model.

One of the first researchers to explore the historical continuity of fashion was anthropologist, A.L. Kroeber. Kroeber (1919) examined style changes (e.g., width measurements and length measurements) in women's apparel from 1844-1919. The results of this study indicated:

• similar skirt lengths recurred every 35 years
• similar skirt widths recurred at the rate of once every 100 years (50 years in each direction)
• neckline width followed the same course as skirt width
• neckline length rose in a third of the time required for its descent
• diameter of the waist fluctuated irregularly
• each silhouette measurement changed at its own pace
• skirt length changed three times faster than skirt width

Weeden (1977) furthered this type of research by exploring lengths and widths of skirts and waist of daytime dresses from 1920-1976.

Although proponents of the historical continuity model of fashion, Lowe and Lowe (1983) make the following assumptions about fashion change:

inertia operates

e.g., if skirts have been progressively rising for the last few years, they tend to continue to rise unit they reach an extreme.

resistance to that motion occurs

large year-to-year jumps in one direction create force (movement) back the other way.

dress dimensions are not independent

e.g., as skirts get shorter, they may get narrower

fashion can also be totally unpredictable

which leaves room for innovation and choice

They concluded "the fashion process in women's dress is predictable, but just barely. ... But despite a certain degree of apparent structural transformation and irreducible noise, the predictability of stylistic change in women's evening wear seems beyond dispute. There is an important distinction between prediction and understanding. Time series models of the Box-Jenkins variety rarely offer much insight or understanding, but often provide the most reliable predictions. For the majority of the dress dimensions, however, they do not. They do provide a baseline against which more complex models may be measured and what we find is that introducing the concept of inertia and interaction between dress dimensions does on the whole increase not only our understanding of the stylistic process, but also our ability to forecast it." (p. 734).

As you explore historical continuity models of fashion, think about your own experiences and observations about fashion change: how predictable is fashion? What aspects about fashion are more predictable than others? What aspects of fashion are more or less influenced by external events? What aspects of fashion are totally unpredictable?

Additional References

On the order in civilization as exemplified by changes of fashion

Kroeber, A.L. (1919). On the order in civilization as exemplified by changes of fashion. American Anthropologist, 21, 235-263.

Cultural pattern and process: A study of stylistic change in women's dress

Lowe, J. W. G., & Lowe, E. D. (1982). Cultural pattern and process: A study of stylistic change in women's dress. American Anthropologist, 84, 521-544.

Model of fashion change

Lowe, J. W. G., & Lowe, E. D. (1983). Model of fashion change. Advances in Consumer Research, 11, 731-734.

Study patterned on Kroeber's investigation of style

Weeden, P. (1977). Study patterned on Kroeber's investigation of style. Dress, 3, 9-19.